What is hot money? Why did international hot money flow into China in 2006? Now that international hot money flows out of China? How did you get it?

Hot Money, also known as Refugee Capital or speculative short -term capital, only to pursue short -term speculative funds that quickly flow in the international financial market with the lowest risk. The speculative movement of short -term funds in the world is mainly to evade political risks, pursue changes in exchange rates, changes in the price of important commodities or changes in the price of international securities, and hot money is a speculative behavior that pursues exchange rate changes. When speculators expect a certain currency price to fall, they will sell the long -term foreign exchange of this currency, so that after the expiration of future expirations, the interests that can be bought at a lower period of time to earn this exchange difference. Because this is purely short -selling speculation, it is different from the set of exchange. In the foreign exchange market, because such speculative funds often have their own devaluation tendency to transform the currency to currency with appreciation currency, which increases the instability of the foreign exchange market. Wise or implement foreign exchange control can prevent the flow of speculative funds.
Although it can be said about it, how to identify hot money and determine the number of hot money is not easy. Because hot money is not static, some long -term capital can also be converted into short -term capital under certain circumstances, and short -term capital can be converted into hot money. The key is whether the economic and financial environment will cause funds to move from investment to speculative and from speculative to flee. The current fixed exchange rate system in my country and the external financial environment of the continued depreciation of the US dollar has created a arbitrage opportunity for hot money to enter and exit.
The first is the false prosperity of hot money in the economy. Judging from the current situation in my country, while the hot money is expected to be appreciated by the RMB, the opportunity to continue to find arbitrage opportunities such as the real estate market, the bond market, the stock market, and other markets in other markets. The most obvious is the real estate market. In the past two years, my country's real estate prices have risen straight, and the national real estate prices have risen above 12%, far exceeding the consumer price index, especially in Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanjing and other large cities, real estate prices have risen by more than 20%, and even even Reach 50%. Even though the severe macro regulation in 2004 did not suppress the sharp rise in house prices. Therefore, some arbitrage capital cannot be ruled out in my country's real estate market. One of the important reasons why many real estate developers are unwilling to reduce prices and house prices is that they have fantasies about international hot money, and an important reason to attract international hot money to enter the Chinese property market is the significant appreciation of the RMB.
It's entry into a large number of hot money, increase the scale of foreign exchange funds, affect the normal operation of monetary policy, disrupt the normal operation of the financial system, and exacerbate the pressure of domestic inflation. In 2004, the basis of basic currencies reached more than 660 billion yuan. According to the calculation of about 100 billion US dollars of hot money, there were more than 800 billion yuan. Therefore, the inflow of the hot money exceeded the annual basic currency investment. This forced the central bank to use the central bank's bills to forcibly sell it in the open market. In 2004 alone, the central bank issued nearly 1.5 trillion yuan of bills, which greatly increased the operating costs of the central bank. The effect is greatly reduced, increasing the pressure of inflation.
In relevant experts, as of the end of 2005, the "hot money" in my country exceeded US $ 320 billion, and at the end of 2006 and at the end of 2007, it was $ 400 billion and $ 500 billion, respectively. On June 24, 2008, experts of the Institute of World Political and Economic Research, the Academy of Social Sciences published a report on the website of the Social Sciences that under the hypothesis of a certain economic model, the amount of hot money in China's capital market was amazing, which was as high as 1.75 trillion yuan The US dollar, this number is about 104%of the Chinese foreign exchange reserve stock as of the end of March 2008. The inflow of "hot money" to China is driven by various factors: it can not only achieve the risk of international financial turmoil, but also benefit the RMB set of foreign exchange, and speculate on the domestic stock market and property market. " Artificially increased the pressure of RMB to appreciate. The current exchange rate system in China and the continued depreciation of the US dollar can attract hot money. Therefore, as long as the RMB appreciation is expected, the pressure of the RMB appreciation will be . In the end, the outflow of hot money will also make the economy violently. With the 7 hikes of the Federal Reserve, the US dollar interest rate increases the attraction of the dollar, and the expected uncertainty of the appreciation of the renminbi increases. The market price of some speculative atmosphere will fluctuate sharply, such as the rapid decline in real estate prices, bond prices, and sharp fluctuations in the stock market.
. For a long time, developing countries have often flowed out of accidents due to the shortage of domestic funds. I hope foreign exchange flows. Thailand pursues high interest rate policies by 1997, and a large amount of "hot money" poured in; after the depreciation of the Thai baht, "hot money" quickly escaped, causing the Thai economic building to collapse. Heat source:
1. Short -term interest rate is at the high point height, or it is still rising.
. The exchange rate in the short period of time is ready to be appreciated, it is about to appreciate.
Performance hot money flows in.
generally developing countries, the economy is taking off, and the market income is growing. R n The most loyalty at all, they will always stay in the country relative to other countries:
1. Short -term interest rates have already fell back
2. The exchange rate in the short period is to be degraded during the short period R n will flow out again.
The so -called hot money flow is to sell its currency valuation assets, such as stocks, national debt, and speculative land owned by foreign capital.
In the above, if the time is short and the traffic is large, it will cause the housing market in the country's stock market and bond market, and the predecessors will fall. The fixed exchange rate system and the external financial environment that continues to depreciate in the US dollar has created the opportunity for arbitrage of hot money in and out.
The hot money may not be a flood beast. In China, as long as it feels favorable, there is no need to make bumps to the world, then the hot money is not all hidden.
What channels do the hot money in this paragraph flow into China?
The hot money enters more than ten kinds of channels to enter more than ten kinds of channels. The main channels are:
Theflier, false trade. In this channel, domestic enterprises and foreign investors can join forces to use virtual high quotation, pre -collection of payment, and forgery of supply contracts to make overseas funds Introduction.
The second, capital increase and shareholding. On the basis of the original registration funds, foreign -invested enterprises apply for capital increases on the grounds of "expanding production scale" and "increasing investment projects". After the funds come in Find an excuse to withdraw the original project contract, so it is easy for the entry and exit of hot money.
The third, currency circulation and conversion. There is a section of the market in the market to explain the way of flowing in this hot money: "Hong Kong dollars cannot be convertible, the renminbi can be exchanged, and the two places are first -class and can be exchanged." In the inspection, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange found that through this method of currency conversion and cross -regional operations, it also made a lot of hot money "in and out of freely."
It four, underground money house. Underground Qianzhuang is the fastest way to enter and exit foreign investment. Many underground money houses are operating like this: Suppose you hit the money to a specified account in the local area in Hong Kong or outside somewhere. After being confirmed, the underground bank in the Mainland will naturally help you open a household and convert your foreign currency to Renminbi. There is no need to come in at all.
The five, container car clip cash. This approach is mainly concentrated in the ingredients processing enterprise in the Pearl River Delta. In the name of employee salary, the enterprise will bring Hong Kong dollars in and out of Guangdong and Hong Kong through the container truck. If there are a lot of eight container trucks in an enterprise, it is common for a car to run for one or two times. Each trip is 500,000 Hong Kong dollars, even if it is investigated by the customs. Since 2006, as the demand for funds has increased, some similar companies have slowly expanded their business to become a "underground money house" in disguise, and help others with cash in large quantities.
The six, family money. Overseas Chinese remittances to domestic relatives are called albums, and this number has increased significantly in recent years. The money that is really used in the "family" here is suspicious. Quite a lot of hot money is to come in and buy a house through this channel.
The characteristics of the hot money of this paragraph
The hot money has the following "four highs" features:
1. High returns and risk. Pursuing high returns is the ultimate goal of hot money in the global financial market movement. Of course, high income is often accompanied by high risk, so hot money earns high risk profits. They may earn in this market and lose money at this time, or at this time, and at this time, this also makes it bear high risk Consciousness and ability.
2. High information and sensitivity. Hot money is the darling of the information era. It is highly sensitive to the current situation and trend of one country or the world's economic and financial situation, the difference between the spread, spread and various price differences in various financial markets, and various price differences, and can quickly reflect it.
3. High liquidity and short -term. Based on high information and high sensitivity, if you have money, you can quickly enter, and the risk is increasing instantly. Expressing great short -term, even ultra -short -term, quickly enter and exit within one or one week.
4. The high virtuality and speculation of investment. Saying hot money is an investment fund, which mainly refers to the price securities market and the currency market that they invest in the world in order to obtain profits from the daily, hour, and minute price fluctuations of securities and currencies, that is, "giving money with money" It has a certain lubrication effect on the financial market. If the financial market does not have hot money such as those with hot money, it is impossible for risk hate to transfer risks. However, the investment of hot money does not create employment nor provides services, and has great virtuality, speculation and destructiveness.
In how to respond to the inflow of a large amount of hot money
For China, we should first strengthen the management and supervision of capital inflows, especially short -term speculative capital; To make capital flow sustainable, which is also the most fundamental factor to prevent capital flow reversal; in addition, it is also necessary to maintain a certain flexibility for exchange rate arrangements.

No one can accurately explain how much hot money is

, but now the very popular and rough hot money calculation formula is: the country's foreign reserves increased volume-FDI (foreign direct investment)-trade surplus "

can be roughly estimated